Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.

Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.

Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.

The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.

In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Travelers?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Travelers (TRV Quick QuoteTRV - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $5.86 a share, just seven days from its upcoming earnings release on October 16, 2025.

Travelers' Earnings ESP sits at +7.28%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $5.86 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.47. TRV is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

TRV is one of just a large database of Finance stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Allstate (ALL Quick QuoteALL - Free Report) .

Slated to report earnings on November 5, 2025, Allstate holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and its Most Accurate Estimate is $7.20 a share 27 days from its next quarterly update.

Allstate's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +20.09% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.00.

TRV and ALL's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>